Iranian president MahmoudAhmadinejad likes to repeat Ayatollah Khomeini’s famous slogan,America can do nothing.
That’s what hebelieves when it comes to the latest offer by the Great Powers toIran over its nuclear program. He believes he can simply spit in ourface, and we will say, “Sorry.”
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Because that’swhat he did when former European Union official Javier Solanatraveled to Tehran on June 6 to present the Great Power offer ofnuclear cooperation. But Solana just took out his handkerchief, andsmiled.
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It’s going to beup to Condoleeza Rice to prove that Ahmadinejad is wrong. And that isgoing to be a tall order, since four of the other five persons in theBush administration who have backed her offer to Iran all believethat America needs to learn to say sorry.
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(Hint: the guy whodoesn’t just returned from Baghdad.)
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Solana was sent toTehran to deliver what amounted to an ultimatum from the PermanentFive members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. The ultimatumwas not an American diktat, but in fact reiterated long-standingdemands by the IAEA, the European Union, and most recently, the UNSecurity Council, that Iran verifiably suspend its uranium enrichmentprograms and cooperate fully and openly with the IAEA.
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If Iran met those twoconditions, the great powers were offering “a fresh start innegotiations of a comprehensive agreement” with Iran, thatwould provide Iran with technology and economic incentives, AFPreported yesterday from Vienna.
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The offer included an explicit recognition that Iran could continue acivilian nuclear power program, and that the West would “activelysupport” such a program.
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But as a top Iranianarms control official told me eleven years ago, Iran does not wantnuclear power. Iran wants a dual-use nuclear program that will allowit to build nuclear weapons at the moment of its choosing. He calledthis “keeping our nuclear options open.”
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Of course, theNon-proliferation treaty explicitly bans this type of nucleartechnology transfer. Signatories of the treaty gain access tocivilian nuclear technology if – and only if – theyforeswear any intention or program to build nuclear weapons.
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This is why Iran hasrejected an offer that most countries would find too good to refuse.It wants to keep its nuclear options open.
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The latest IAEA reportto the Board of Governors, which meets today to discuss Iran’scase, describes with clinical accuracy Iran’s refusal of theGreat Power offer.
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At the very momentSolana was in Tehran, the report states, Iran notified the IAEA thatit had “started feeding” uranium hexafluoride gas into anenrichment cascade composed of 164 high-speed centrifuges, and was “continuingits installation work on other 164-machine cascades.”
Iran also said it had launched “a new conversion campaign”of uranium hexafluoride feedstock for enrichment that same day.
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The IAEA report went onto note that Iran had also rejected the other condition for resumingnuclear talks with the great powers, by refusing to answer repeatedquestions from IAEA inspectors about a parallel uranium enrichmentprogram known as the Green Salt Project, as well as work on “highexplosives testing” and a possible nuclear missile re-entryvehicle.
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All three are relatedto nuclear weapons work, as part of a suspected parallel, undeclaredprogram run by the Iranian military. “Iran has not expressedreadiness to discuss these topics further,” the reportnoted.
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What part of Iran’s“No” do we fail to understand?
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It has said “no”to suspending enrichment, and “no” to transparency –effectively rejecting the Great Power offer. And yet, at the end ofyesterday’s IAEA board meeting in Vienna, the Russianambassador told the press as he left the Council chamber that he feltthe IAEA should “continue talking” to Tehran.
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The apparent linguisticdisability of the great powers has been frustrating to Ahmadinejad.Just two days after Solana’s June 6 visit, he decided to makehis rejection of the nuclear offer more clear.
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Speaking to a crowd inQazvin, home of one of Iran’s previously secret nuclear weaponsresearch sites, Ahmadinejad reiterated his long-standing insistencethat Iran would never give up its “definite rights” touranium enrichment.
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“If they thinkthey can threaten and hold a stick over Iran's head and offernegotiations at the same time, they should know the Iranian nationwill definitely reject such an atmosphere,” he said.
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That is not codeddiplomatic language, nor is it subject to interpretation. TheIranians have consistently used the same terms whenever they haveflouted the International Atomic Energy Agency or the UN SecurityCouncil over uranium enrichment.
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It is their right, theyinsist; therefore no one can demand that they give it up, eventemporarily.
The key question is going to be whether the Great Powers hold to theultimatum they had Solana deliver to Tehran. Already, voices arebeing raised – both here in the U.S. and elsewhere – thatyou cannot launch negotiations by imposing conditions.
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But so far, the Westernpowers (as opposed to Russia and China) appear to be holdingfirm.
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“Once a countryhas enriched uranium to the level needed for nuclear power,” aWestern diplomat in Vienna explained, “that uranium is 70% ofthe way to what is needed to make nuclear weapons.”
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“That’s whywe’ve been so adamant about not allowing Iran to continue even “smallscale” enrichment, because it’s already 70% of the way tothe bomb,” he added. “You can’t be a little bitpregnant.”
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Condoleeza Rice needsto step up to the plate, and make clear – yet again –that the Six Power offer to Iran is not a negotiating position, or anopening ante, as the Russians and Chinese apparently believe. It isexactly what she said it was whenshe first announced it on May 31.It’s a choice that the Iranians must make.
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And now they have madeit.
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The worst possibleoutcome of the nuclear showdown with Iran would be for the West toignore the Islamic Republic leaders when they clearly announce theirchoice.
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It’s called theslippery slope. Take one step down that road, and it’s a quickbone-crushing ride down the chute to failure. And in this case,failure means a nuclear-armed Iran.
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